(December 18, 2025) – Two major changes are coming to how Billboard factors streaming into its charts beginning January 2026 — and both are already proving controversial.
First, YouTube announced that, after Jan. 16, it is no longer delivering its data to Billboard following a dispute over how the trade publication weighs ad-supported vs. subscription-based on-demand streaming. YouTube claimed that Billboard “uses an outdated formula that weights subscription-supported streams higher than ad-supported” ones. YouTube further stated that the policy “ignores the massive engagement from fans who don’t have a subscription.”
As I understand the policy, Billboard favors streams generated by subscribers to services like YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Music as a form of paid consumption, rather than those who use those platforms’ free, ad-based services. It’s the notion that music consumed by fans who actually pay for subscriptions should be rewarded more, just as physical products like records or CDs were rewarded by people going out of their way to purchase them in stores in previous times.
But YouTube may have a point. A subscription to Spotify doesn’t grant access to more or different music — it simply removes friction. It provides more flexibility for storing that music on your listening device (e.g., while offline or in airplane mode) and creating or listening to curated playlists. But passive listening to curated playlists and on-demand selection of individual songs are two different things, and it is only the latter that Billboard counts towards its charts, hence making YouTube’s assertion that it shouldn’t matter whether or not listeners subscribe seem valid.
Perhaps the bigger change is how streaming from both free and subscription-based platforms will be counted moving forward. Beginning with the album and singles charts dated Jan. 17, streaming of both types will be weighted higher, with ad-based on-demand now only requiring 2500 streams to equal an album sale (down from the current 3750), and subscription-based going from 1250 to 1000 streams equaling an album unit. Those same ratios — divided by ten — are used for the “equivalent units sold” component of singles charts like the Hot 100.
How it May Work
Those are huge changes. Consider this quick math using just the ad-supported factor. Before if an album generated 75,000,000 non-subscription streams in a week, that would equate to 20,000 units sold. Under the new factor, if an album is streamed that many times, it will equal 30,000 units sold, or a 50% hike.
Using the subscription-based model, if an album was streamed 50,000,000 times in a given week, that equated to 40,000 units under the old formula. Beginning Jan. 17, that same streaming total would yield 50,000 equivalent units sold, or a 25% jump. Combining the two examples — since most albums generate both ad-supported and subscription-based on-demand streams — a set that currently moves 60,000 album-equivalent units would jump to roughly 80,000 units beginning Jan. 17, a 33% increase without a single additional play.
Furthermore, the change appears to be a concession from Billboard that the old ratio between ad-supported and subscription-based streaming, which was 3750:1250 or 3:1, no longer represents consumer habits. The newer 2500:1000 — or 2.5:1 ratio— acknowledges that more and more streamers don’t subscribe to Spotify or Apple Music and simply use their free, ad-based services.
Still, that adjustment didn’t seem to appease YouTube, which in its statement asked Billboard to simply count every stream “fairly and equally, whether it is subscription-based or ad-supported, because every fan matters and every play should count.” In other words, YouTube sought a 1:1 ratio between subscription and ad-based streaming, whether that conversion was 3750:3750, 2500:2500, or 1000:1000.
What It All Means for The Charts
Its not clear what the combined effect of both changes — the increased weighting of streams and the removal of YouTube data — will be on the charts, or if it was the removal of YouTube’s information that prompted Billboard to up the ante on its remaining streaming data partners. But there will clearly be an impact, and it will likely favor artists and genres that rely heavily on streaming for their success, like reigning country king Morgan Wallen or hip-hop acts in general. It’s been well documented that R&B/Hip-Hop has been the most consumed format of music in the U.S. since 2017, primarily due to streaming. With the changes increasing streaming’s weight on both the album and singles charts, that should only further boost the share for R&B/Hip-Hop acts like Drake, 21 Savage, and others.
Naturally for the Hot 100 songs chart, which also includes airplay and digital downloads of individual tracks in its weekly formula, streaming will matter even more than it does today — much to the dismay of fans who long for the old days when an artist couldn’t dominate the upper tier of the chart simply by having all of a new album’s tracks streamed heavily during release week. Record labels, however, likely welcome the change — it is the industry, after all, for whom Billboard tallies these numbers, not fans.
This would continue a direction that began in earnest in the mid-2010s, when streaming overtook radio as the dominant driver of chart success. As streaming becomes more and more democratized with fewer blockbuster singles emerging and fans’ listening tastes spread across a wider swath of songs, the charts’ point totals — particularly in the top ten — have significantly decreased over the past two years. The pending changes will likely prop up those numbers — both on the Hot 100 and Billboard 200 — when all is said and done.
Music Videos Out of the Picture
With YouTube streaming no longer being factored into Billboard, there’ll be less incentive for labels and artists to produce promotional videos, whether they be visuals, lyric videos, or full-on music videos. That effectively removes official music videos — once a major chart weapon — from the equation altogether. This will be especially important for Taylor Swift fans as she’s one who likes to use the medium to generate buzz for official single releases. It’s been widely speculated that Swift and her label were planning to release a video for “Opalite” at the beginning of the year, when YouTube streams of the video were expected to push it back up the charts and compete for a No. 1 rank (the song debuted and peaked (so far) at No. 2 upon the album’s release in October). With the pending change, the song’s best hope lies in increased streaming on traditional DSPs like Spotify and Apple Music due to increased exposure from the video, should it be released.
Impact on RIAA Certifications/ DSP Pay Structure
It’s also not clear what the new algorithm means for official album sales certifications from the RIAA or how digital streaming platforms compensate artists. With album equivalent units effectively going up by double-digit margins using the same numbers of streams, will the RIAA concurrently use the same adjusted basis for its sales certification audits going forward? Will artists be compensated more by DSPs for the same streaming numbers, given their heavier album weights?
All of this will be interesting to watch in the coming months. For fans, this may feel like yet another step away from the charts they grew up trusting. For the industry, it’s an apparently overdue recalibration. Either way, the message is unmistakable: in 2026, streaming doesn’t just matter — it matters more than ever.
DJRob
DJRob (he/him) is a freelance music blogger from the East Coast who covers R&B, hip-hop, disco, pop, rock and country genres – plus lots of music news and current stuff! You can follow him on Bluesky at @djrobblog.bsky.social, X (formerly Twitter) at @djrobblog, on Facebook or on Meta’s Threads.
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