(November 17, 2024). It’s that time of year again when holiday cheer fills the air and nicely decorated homes begin to line neighborhood streets. Salvation Army bells are jingling and jolly old Santas are trying to find work in the ever dwindling number of shopping malls across America.
Most importantly, Christmas Queen Mariah Carey has declared “it’s time,” which can only mean one thing: the not-so-elusive chanteuse, who is no stranger to making Billboard chart history, will soon begin her annual takeover of the Hot 100. Her 30-year-old perennial, “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” is ready to reclaim its throne. But this year, the ‘90s megastar is also looking to end a little history: that of Shaboozey, the Nigerian-rooted, dreadlocked country-rap phenom whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has been partying atop the Hot 100 for 17 non-consecutive weeks, the longest ever for an unaccompanied solo act.
Shaboozey is inching closer to an even bigger prize. If his barroom banger hits 19 weeks at No. 1 — a strong possibility — it will tie Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” which featured Billy Ray Cyrus, for the longest-reigning chart-topper in Billboard’s archives. Boozey’s booze-filled quest has been anything but smooth sailing, with challengers from across genres — and even decades — taking their best shots at dethroning him.
Let’s break this down like an old Christmas cookie.
Morgan Wallen’s Swing and Miss
Shaboozey’s first real scare came earlier this month when Morgan Wallen, country music’s reigning chart titan, dropped a new song “Love Somebody.” At the time, “Tipsy” had just hit its 15th week at No. 1, putting Wallen’s previous record for longest-running solo No. 1 (“Last Night” at 16 weeks) in jeopardy.
Wallen timed his single’s release perfectly. “Love Somebody” debuted at No. 1 on the chart dated Nov. 2, temporarily halting Shaboozey’s quest. But much like a seasoned barfly, “Tipsy” staggered back to the top the following week to tie and then surpass Wallen’s record.
Wallen’s attempt, while valiant, must have felt like that whiskey shot you get after last call — satisfying in the moment but not enough to change the night’s trajectory.
Lil Nas X: Petty King Energy
If Wallen’s move was subtle, Lil Nas X’s attempt to protect his record is anything but. The “Old Town Road” singer dropped “LIGHT AGAIN!” on Nov. 15, perfectly timed to debut on the Nov. 30 chart — the same week Shaboozey could tie his record.
The timing was no coincidence. The self-proclaimed “6’2” dark-skin (ninja) with a purpose” — check his new song’s lyrics — is the king of calculated moves, and while “LIGHT AGAIN!” may not carry the viral punch of 2019’s “Old Town Road” or even his successful 2021 comeback hit “Montero,” its mere presence adds a layer of intrigue. Can a well-timed “LIGHT” derail Shaboozey’s boozy march into history? Probably not, but you can’t fault Nas X for trying.
Mariah Carey’s Annual Christmas Miracle
And then there’s Mariah. Her “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has logged 14 weeks at No. 1 over the past five holiday seasons, with a pattern as predictable as peppermint candy. If she returns to the summit on the Dec. 7 chart (as expected), “Tipsy” will end its reign at 19 weeks (if not sooner), denying Shaboozey the chance to surpass Lil Nas X.
Unlike Wallen or X, Mariah doesn’t have to apply her multiple octaves to a new song to make her move. Her 30-year-old evergreen’s holiday dominance is powered by streaming playlists, mall soundtracks, and the collective will of millions who can’t resist singing along to those iconic opening notes after she thaws herself and declares “it’s tiiiiiiiime.”
Brenda Lee’s Rockin’ Resurgence
And let’s not forget Brenda Lee, who pulled off one of last year’s most surprising chart triumphs when “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” topped the Hot 100 for the first time — 65 years after it was recorded. Lee, now 79, became the oldest artist to hit No. 1, and her holiday evergreen is poised to give Mariah a run for her money yet again.
If “Christmas” and “Rockin’” reprise their double dominance this season, it’ll be another historic moment for holiday hits: last year was the first time two holiday songs topped the Hot 100 in the same season and the first time that two tunes with “Christmas” in their titles hit No. 1 back-to-back.
With Christmas songs expected to rule the Hot 100 for five weeks — on the charts dated Dec. 7, 14, 21, 28 and Jan. 4 — If Lee’s “Rockin’” isn’t able to topple Mariah’s tune, then “All I Want” could find itself challenging X’s (and maybe by then Shaboozey’s) record for most weeks atop the Hot 100 at 19.
You Can’t Get To 19 Before 18
Even before the expected Christmas Hot 100 takeover begins soon, there’s a chance Shaboozey’s “Bar” could be closing early. Two chart challengers — Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” and Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” — have both been perched at No. 2 in recent weeks and are within striking distance of the points needed for No. 1. Either one could easily upend Boozey’s barstool from the top as early as next week (we’ll find that out Monday, Nov. 18) for the chart dated Nov. 23.
If not then, there’s still the matter of getting that 19th week on the Nov. 30 chart, where Shaboozey’s challengers are expected to be even closer in points.
The End of the Boozy Reign?
Even if it ends early, it’s been an incredible ride for Shaboozey, whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has defied genre expectations and partied its way into the record books. But with Morgan Wallen, Lil Nas X, Mariah Carey, and even Brenda Lee and the others all taking their best shots, the writing is on the wall: this boozy anthem’s reign is coming to an end.
If it’s Mariah who ultimately dethrones him, it’ll feel almost poetic. After all, when it comes to the Billboard charts, nobody does a comeback quite like the Queen of Christmas. Shaboozey may have been the life of the party, but when Mariah shows up, the bar closes — and the caroling begins.
DJRob
DJRob (he/him) is a freelance music blogger from the East Coast who covers R&B, hip-hop, disco, pop, rock and country genres – plus lots of music news and current stuff! You can follow him on Facebook or Meta’s Threads.
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