(September 25, 2024). It’s looking more and more like the year’s top three songs — in fact the entire top ten — are a lock for 2024.
With just a few weeks remaining in Billboard’s chart fiscal year — ending in mid-October to accommodate the annual Billboard Music Awards airing in November — it’s highly likely that this year’s biggest hits are already decided. There’s enough of a point gap between what are projected to be the top three — as well as the songs chasing them — that there’s little chance they will change after the final Hot 100 chart of “2024,” dated October 19, is issued.
With that date’s list culminating 52 weeks of activity since the chart year began last October 28, the songs projected to finish as the year’s top three — in order — are:
- “Lose Control” – Teddy Swims
- “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – Shaboozey
- “Beautiful Things” – Benson Boone
If that holds up — and it should — it will mark the first time in Hot 100 history that the year’s three biggest songs are the first top 40 hits by unaccompanied male soloists. Neither Swims, nor Shaboozey, nor Boone had ever had a song reach the chart’s top 40 as solo artists prior to those three tunes’ debuts.
Furthermore, neither Swims nor Shaboozey had ever even had a Hot 100 single as a lead artist before “Lose Control” and “A Bar Song,” respectively. This makes their accomplishment even more astounding: it’s the first time in the chart’s 66-year history that the top two songs of a given year were by male soloists who’d never even touched the Hot 100 as lead artists prior to the songs in question! Swims had never charted in any configuration, while Shaboozey’s only entries prior to “A Bar Song” were as a featured artist on two songs from Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album just weeks prior to his own song debuting.
Both “Lose Control” and “A Bar Song” secured their year-end positions by reaching No. 1 and setting 2024’s longevity records. “Lose Control” logged more than 35 weeks in the top ten — the most in 2024 — and is among the longest running top ten hits in Hot 100 history, while “A Bar Song” has, so far, logged eleven weeks at No. 1 — also the longest of 2024 — placing it among the 30 longest-running No. 1 songs in the chart’s history.
While this year’s achievements will mark a first for male solo acts, there’ve been times in the past where the year’s top two hits were by artists in other configurations that had never charted previously.
In 2008, male rapper FloRida (with T-Pain) had the year’s biggest hit with his debut chart hit, “Low” (although T-Pain was a veteran). The No. 2 song that year was “Bleeding Love,” the first chart single by female newcomer Leona Lewis.
In 2002, the year’s No. 1 song was male rock band Nickelback’s “How You Remind Me,” while the runner-up slot was occupied by female R&B soloist Ashanti’s “Foolish.” Neither act had charted on the Hot 100 prior to those two smashes.
That year was a repeat of the prior year’s chart history as 2001’s two biggies were also by a new male rock band — Lifehouse’s “Hanging By A Moment” — and a début R&B female soloist — Alicia Keys’ “Falling” — in that order.
Fellow nerds likely also noticed the alliteration in those two years’ biggest titles: “How” and “Hanging,” and “Foolish” and “Falling.”
And finally, in 1966, the two biggest hits were by chart newcomers the Mamas and the Papas (“California Dreamin’”) and ? & the Mysterians (“96 Tears”), at Nos. 1 an 2, respectively.
Prior to now, the only time male solo acts came close to achieving this feat was in 1972 when Gilbert O’Sullivan and Don McClean ranked No. 2 and No. 3 after charting for the first time with “Alone Again (Naturally),” and “American Pie,” respectively. The song that held them out of the top two? Roberta Flack’s ironically titled “The FIRST TIME Ever I Saw Your Face” (emphasis added, of course).
And on a final note about men in the top two for the year with debut hits, the Beatles had the top two songs of 1964 with their first two American chart singles, “I Want to Hold Your Hand” and “She Loves You,” respectively. But that technically doesn’t count because by the time “She Loves You” entered the Hot 100, the Fab Four had already charted (with “Hand”), thus the top two were not both debut hits.
Obviously, men have had a dominant year in 2024. Nine of the year’s ten biggest hits are projected to be by male artists, including the debut songs by Swims, Shaboozey and Boone, plus Post Malone/Morgan Wallen (their “I Had Some Help” will likely finish at No. 4), Kendrick Lamar (“Not Like Us,” No. 5), Jack Harlow (“Lovin’ On Me,” No. 6), Tommy Richman (“Million Dollar Baby,” No. 8), Zach Bryan (“I Remember Everything,” No. 9 feat. Kacey Musgraves), and Hozier (“Too Sweet,” No. 10).
The only women projected to be among the year’s ten biggest are up-and-coming superstar Sabrina Carpenter, whose “Espresso” is expected to finish No. 7, and Musgraves (featured on Bryan’s “Everything” at No. 9).
But fans of this year’s hottest female artists shouldn’t fret. Women are expected to occupy 14 of the remaining 20 slots in this year’s top 30, including two songs each by Taylor Swift (“Cruel Summer” and “Fortnight”), Doja Cat (“Agora Hills” and “Paint the Town Red”), SZA (“Saturn” and “Snooze”), plus two more by Carpenter (“Please Please Please” and “Feather”).
For those wondering, Beyoncé’s history-making No. 1 “Texas Hold ‘Em” is expected to finish just outside the top 30, largely due to its short chart run (just 20 weeks on the Hot 100). Another No. 1 song by a woman is expected to miss the 2024 year-end ranking altogether: Megan Thee Stallion’s “HISS” from February, which had the shortest chart run of any chart topper this year with just six weeks on the Hot 100.
This year’s Billboard Music Awards will be held November 17 in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. It is being televised on digital platforms (don’t ask which ones). Billboard will likely publish its annual year-end charts on its website shortly thereafter.
DJRob
DJRob (he/him) is a freelance music blogger from the East Coast who covers R&B, hip-hop, disco, pop, rock and country genres – plus lots of music news and current stuff! You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @djrobblog and on Meta’s Threads.
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